The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for October 2023 global air cargo markets indicating the third consecutive month of stronger year-on-year demand.
Regional variations again highlight the dynamic nature of the industry, with the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East leading the way.
Rising Global Demand: A Positive Trajectory
Global Demand Surges: The demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), showcased a robust increase of 3.8% compared to October 2022.
While international operations experienced a slightly lower growth rate at 3.5%, the overall trend suggests a positive trajectory in the air cargo sector.
Capacity Boost: The available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs) witnessed a substantial rise of 13.1% compared to the same period last year, with international operations seeing an 11.1% increase.
This surge is predominantly attributed to the growth in belly capacity, particularly in the international markets where passenger demand has strengthened.
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Operating Environment Factors
Several factors in the operating environment merit attention:
Economic Slowdown: Economic activities experienced a slowdown in October, as indicated by the Purchasing Managers’ Index and export orders remaining below the critical 50 mark. This serves as a clear marker for impending economic challenges.
Inflation Trends: In major advanced economies, inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed signs of easing, reaching between 3% and 4% for the US and the EU.
However, China’s CPI hinted at deflation for the second time this year, raising concerns of an economic slowdown.
Global Trade Stabilization: After a dip in the preceding months, global trade reversed its downward trajectory, stabilizing in September. Although below its 2022 peak, global cross-border trade is more than 5% above pre-pandemic levels.
Cargo Yields: Cargo yields, after a continuous 17-month decline, saw a 2.6% month-on-month gain in September, maintaining levels well above pre-pandemic standards.
Insights from IATA’s Director General
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, remarked on the positive trends: “Demand for air cargo was up 3.8% in October. That marks three consecutive months of year-on-year growth, placing air cargo on course to end 2023 on a much stronger footing than it began the year.”
However, Walsh balanced optimism with caution, highlighting that demand is still 2.4% below pre-pandemic levels, and uncertainties linger over the global economy’s trajectory.
A strong peak year-end season, though, could provide resilience through potential economic shifts in 2024.
Regional Performance Breakdown
Asia-Pacific Airlines
Solid Growth: Asia-Pacific airlines witnessed a commendable 7.6% increase in air cargo volumes in October 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
Key trade lanes, such as Africa-Asia, Middle East-Asia, and Europe-Asia, contributed to this growth, with available capacity soaring by 30.0%.
North American Carriers
Challenges Persist: North American carriers faced challenges with a 1.8% decrease in cargo volumes year-on-year.
Despite improvements in specific trade lanes, overall performance remained subdued, with a modest 2.4% increase in capacity compared to October 2022.
European Carriers
Steady Progress: European carriers experienced a 1.0% increase in air cargo volumes in October compared to the same month in 2022.
Notable growth in international CTKs within Europe and the Middle East-Europe trade lane contributed to this positive performance, with capacity rising by 7.0%.
Middle Eastern Carriers
Exceptional Growth: Middle Eastern carriers demonstrated the strongest performance with a remarkable 10.9% year-on-year increase in cargo volumes.
Growth in the Middle East–Asia and Middle East–Europe markets fueled this surge, with a 15% increase in capacity compared to October 2022.
Latin American Carriers
Positive Momentum: Latin American carriers experienced a 4.0% increase in cargo volumes, surpassing the previous month’s gain. Capacity also saw a notable 8.3% rise compared to October 2022.
African Airlines
Recovery Continues: African airlines witnessed a 2.9% increase in air cargo volumes, showcasing improvement from September’s performance.
Key trade lanes, such as Africa-Asia, played a pivotal role, contributing to a 9.8% increase in capacity compared to October 2022.
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