Transborder travel between Canada and the USA has taken a steep dive. Advance bookings through October 2025 show a staggering 70% year-on-year drop. This sharp decline raises a question: could transatlantic travel between the US and Europe follow suit?
Economic pressures and geopolitical disruption in the US might suggest so, and some indicators of a softening in transatlantic air travel demand are appearing.
Let’s explore why this could happen—and why it might not.
The Canada-US Warning Sign
The Canada-US travel slump is real. Several carriers have cut flights and considered reducing capacity to the US as bookings plummet.
According to recent OAG analytics data, forward travel bookings show a 70% drop through to October 2025 compared to last year. Why? Economic factors like a strong US dollar and looming tariffs on Canadian goods play a role. So does politics.
Controversial US rhetoric and policies have sparked a Canadian backlash, with many opting to skip cross-border trips. Trade tensions and an unwelcoming vibe are chilling what was once a bustling travel corridor. If this can happen so close to home, could Europe be next?
Economic and Political Pressures Across the Pond
The US economic and political climate offers clues. A strong dollar makes the US pricey for Europeans. Hotel rates are up, and inflation in Europe is squeezing budgets.
Politically, the picture is murkier. Post-2024 election shifts, like Project 2025, severe immigration crackdowns, and open US hostility towards former allies like Europe have soured views.
Surveys from March 2025 show over half of Brits, Germans, and Swedes now view the US unfavorably. Travel warnings from Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany about border hassles don’t help.
Tourism Economics slashed its 2025 US inbound forecast from an 8.8% rise to a 5.1% drop, blaming polarizing policies. That’s a potential $64 billion hit, with Europe already down 1% in February 2025.
Why Transatlantic Travel Might Hold Up
Yet transatlantic travel isn’t Canada-US travel. Americans flocked to Europe in 2024 with a record 77 million passengers crossing the Atlantic.
The strong dollar and remote work fueled this surge, and 2025 plans show new routes to places like Catania, Italy. Big events like the 2025 Ryder Cup and 2026 FIFA World Cup could keep US-bound traffic alive.
European airlines like Lufthansa report steady bookings, per the A4E Summit in March. Unlike Canada’s frequent border hops, transatlantic trips are often big, planned vacations. They are perhaps less swayed by short-term drama.
Global Airlines’ Big Bet
New start-up premium carrier Global Airlines is set to commence its first transatlantic flights in May, with bookings open for inaugural flights to New York from Glasgow and Manchester.
The airline will operate the iconic Airbus A380. Will the current situation affect its plan? This will certainly be one to watch, and will likely be a further indicator of the temperature of transatlantic travel.
With talk of airlines trimming capacity, Global has big shoes to fill in terms of capacity on its “superjumbo” A380.
Virgin Atlantic’s warning of declining US demand and Delta’s trimmed forecasts signal caution. Yet Global’s focus on luxury—and one-off charters rather than daily schedules—might dodge broader cuts. Nevertheless, filling 470-odd seats amid softening demand may become a tall order.
Looking Ahead
The US economic and political climate could cool transatlantic enthusiasm, especially from Europe. Watch costs, perceptions, and policy moves through to October 2025.
Notably, the European travel scene presents as being a little different to the present US-Canada dynamic, but the niggling warning signs are there.
For the shorter term, expect a dip, but not a dive. We certainly live in interesting times.
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