LONDON – It’s clear that my predictions from last week regarding the Farnborough Air Show were way well off, especially with the surprises given. Welcome to The Editor’s Corner.
The Editor’s Corner is an op-ed series from AviationSource Editor-in-Chief James Field, who is going to give his thoughts (Maybe controversial) on all things going on in the aviation industry.
In case you have missed the last 16, feel free to browse through them before you continue to read this piece:
- The Editor’s Corner #1: The Industry Isn’t Ready for Summer 2022 Demand
- The Editor’s Corner #2: JetBlue’s Offer for Spirit Airlines Will Change The American Airline Dynamic
- The Editor’s Corner #3: Boris Johnson’s Damage To The Aviation Sector is Another Reason for Resignation
- The Editor’s Corner #4: PLAY Will Transform The Market with a Post-Pandemic Edge
- The Editor’s Corner #5: Detriment of the Boeing 737 MAX & 787 Is Causing a 777X-Based Aftershock
- The Editor’s Corner #6: Qantas’ Plans For The Future Will Turn Around Negative Times
- The Editor’s Corner #7: The P2F Market Is Hotting Up…
- The Editor’s Corner #8: O’Leary Is Gunning For Another Cheap Boeing Order
- The Editor’s Corner #9: Ukraine Crisis: Turkish Airlines’ A350 Snap-Up from Aeroflot May Have Something To Do With A Red Carpet…
- The Editor’s Corner #10 – Ukraine Crisis: Lessors Will Not Win The Russia Battle
- The Editor’s Corner #11 – Spirit Airlines Are Slowly Changing Their Mind…
- The Editor’s Corner #12 – The Indian Air Cargo Market Is Hotting Up
- The Editor’s Corner #13 – Video Footage From RedAir Flight 203 Highlights Dangers of Carrying Luggage During an Evacuation
- The Editor’s Corner #14 – The Spirit-Frontier-JetBlue Battle for Merger Will Be Remembered As A Mess
- The Editor’s Corner #15 – Flyr, Norse & Norwegian Have Opportunity to Capitalise on SAS’ Woes
- The Editor’s Corner #16 – The Airbus & Boeing Battle Will Heat Up At Farnborough
James will be starting things off with his next topic being: My Predictions for Farnborough Were Well Off…
My Predictions for Farnborough Were Well Off…
In the last edition of the Editor’s Corner, I gave my predictions in terms of the number of orders that were expected at the Farnborough Air Show 2022.
From this week’s carnage, it remains clear that my predictions were well off.
But to be honest, it comes as no surprise that my predictions were wrong, as the airshow definitely threw some curveballs.
My Initial Predictions…
| Manufacturer | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 | Grand Total |
| Airbus | 140 | 125 | 200 | 50 | 10 | 525 |
| Boeing | 100 | 250 | 100 | 10 | 50 | 510 |
| Embraer | 20 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 105 |
| ATR | 5 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
The Actual Scoreboard…
| Manufacturer | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 | Grand Total |
| Airbus | 0 | 12 | 0 | 17 | 0*** | 29 |
| Boeing | 133** | 92 | 4 | 16* | 0*** | 245 |
| Embraer | 0 | 278 | 0 | 2 | 0*** | 280 |
| ATR | 36 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0*** | 58 |
*Reflects minimum order of Cargolux’s 16 777-8 Freighters to replace 16 747-400 aircraft.
**We missed an order. Three 737-800BCFs were ordered by Aircompany Armenia & Georgia Airlines. Table updated 21/7/22 for this.,
***Sales campaign finished.
Couldn’t Have Been More Wrong…
Obviously, from what you can see above, my predictions were too high, but this, of course, was based on previous airshows. Even so, with COVID and Ukraine affecting the industry, it comes as no surprise that the numbers were lower.
Looking ahead to the Paris Air Show next year, the numbers seen at FIA22 could be the same. But then again, with the industry due to recover next year, this is why it makes predictions so difficult.
Either way, I am happy to state that I am wrong in this regard, and I think even from the get-go, it was quite unknown how the airshow was going to go for each manufacturer.
The Volatility of the Airshow Made My Predictions Wrong…
The airshow was a lot more volatile than previous airshows, meaning that the predictions were going to be wrong from the beginning. I should have factored that into my decision.
Because Airbus and Boeing were both rehashing orders (VietJet MAX order & easyJet A320neo order), this is also why the figures were far off as well.
As mentioned all week via our live coverage, we were only adding brand new and fresh orders to the scoreboard, as orders were being firmed up from previous MoUs or LoIs.
Overall: My Next Prediction Will Be Based On FIA22…
It’s clear that for the next prediction I make, which will be at the Paris Air Show 2023, I will have to base it on the numbers recorded at FIA22.
This is because if the numbers end up becoming higher than predicted, then at least it will look better the fact that it had exceeded my future expectations.
Either way, it has been a fantastic week at Farnborough Air Show, and once again, thank you for following our live coverage.
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