Growth Ahead for the Industry: Post-Pandemic Recovery in Full Effect

Photo sourced from Conde Nast Traveller

LONDON – As the world is looming out of stressful years of the COVID-19 pandemic, which impacted induvial, industries, businesses, and every other economic and social attribute around the globe, commercial aviation industry has started to feel the positivity from it, as the markets are once again booming, and traffic in airline industry is once again witnessing upward trends.

Air Transportation, the ultimate driving force behind economic, social, and cultural attributes of all the nations around the globe is once again looming out of pandemic blues and have started showing positive trends, significant traffic, and profits around the world.

This certainly means great news for the commercial aircraft manufacturers, as the demand for aircraft is once again picking up, and halted production lines are seeing busy and happy faces trying to deliver those jets in time.

The commercial aircraft market, which has been valued at US$84.45 billion in the beginning of 2020, is projected to surpass beyond US$173.08billion by year 2026, with a CAGR of 12.32% between forecasted period of 2021-2026, despite pandemic crisis.

As Covid-19 pandemic disrupted air travel and passenger demand globally in 2020, with flight activity reduced, most airlines favoured in cancelling or differing their orders which were booked on the manufacturer’s books.

As a result of this drastic step, the commercial aircraft OEMs were forced to reduce their production rate due to slump in demand for new jets.

Despite positive trends being observed in the industry between forecasted period, it is evident that the pandemic would certainly be affecting the further path of recovery over couple years, though the impact would be considerably slower and minuscule.

The aviation industry could witness complete recovery upwards of 2024, however, the large-scale backlog with aircraft OEM’s is expected to drive the market during the forecasted period.  

As the airlines are ramping up their efforts to meet sudden surge in demand and are witnessing positive forecast over coming summer and winter season, they are expediting their efforts to re-establish routes which were slashed during pandemic.

Many carriers are also undergoing fleet modernisation and destination expansion, thus creating demand for more aircrafts from the OMEs as they look forward to supplying the carriers.  

It’s evident that the OMEs have significant backlog, with Airbus reporting 7,036 jets in pipeline and Boeing reporting 4,210 aircrafts still in backlog books.

This established the fact that, despite the reduction in demand from the carriers, the deliveries of commercial aircrafts will continue at a healthy rate during the forecasted period, as reported by Reportlinker.

Furthermore, demand for narrow-body aircrafts are once again showing positive recovery as compared to that of wide-body aircrafts, as domestic demand trends are significantly higher are expected to return to pre-covid levels earlier than that of international demand. the return of Boeing 737MAX to commercial use after its re-certification has certainly shown growth to narrow body segment with airlines relying on cost- and fuel-efficient modes.

Before the pandemic began in early 2020, narrow-body aircraft held a significant market share in the airline industry.

With many low-cost and ultra-low-cost carriers coming into existence, airlines witnessed sharp passenger demand for air travel thus creating demand for new generation of narrow-body aircraft accommodating/suiting their model of low cost of operations and fuel efficiency over short haul routes.

A new generation of narrow-body aircraft is equipped with technological advancements that allow them to execute longer distances, thus creating medium-haul traffic trends operated using narrow-body jets.

The Airbus A320 and A321 and Boeing 737 are making news for their advanced capabilities to perform medium-haul destinations with higher payload and seat options.

In the year 2020, Airbus alone completed deliveries of 484 narrow-body aircraft and Boeing delivered 43, making it evident that the narrow-body jets are becoming the future trend.

Post first wave of pandemic, in 2021 Airbus delivered staggering 460 and Boeing delivered 230 narrow body jets globally.

It is evident that the issues with Boeing 737MAXs performance and accidents dampened the demand for the Boeing narrow-body jets, but with re-recertification and service introduction, the demand is seen surging for 737MAX in 2021.

Russia and China have joined the race to capture market share in narrow-body aircraft productions, with MC-21 and COMAC C919 models expected to enter commercial use from 2023.

Both Russia and China are planning to compete directly with the giants like Airbus and Boeing, increasing demand for domestic travel over international on short and medium-haul would certainly create market shift for the OEMs in the Southeast Asian and African markets.

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