LONDON – As the aviation industry weathers out the pandemic, American aircraft manufacturer Boeing says that by 2041, the world needs 41,000 new aeroplanes.
Boeing released its CMO, or commercial market outlook by 2041, and it forecasts that there will be a need for 41,000 new commercial jets in approximately 2 decades.
Boeing CMO’s projects that by 2041, there will be a market value of $7.2 trillion in demand for new airplane deliveries. This means that the total global fleet will increase by 80% in 2 decades. This number is very impressive given the industry had been battered by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Boeing predicts that more than half of today’s fleet will be replaced by new orders, as demand for modern, safer and more fuel-efficient jets will increase drastically. Moreover, Boeing Global Services also predicts approximately $3.6 trillion in demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul and modifications such as freighters to passengers conversion.
This industry creates a high-value supply chain, as there is high demand for pilots, qualified engineers and technicians.
Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing, said: “Despite the unprecedented disruption over the past two years, the aviation industry has shown incredible resilience in adapting to the challenge.”
“The 2022 CMO draws upon our expertise forecasting market trends to demonstrate the strong demand for new aeroplanes and related services in the coming decades, providing a waypoint as the industry continues to navigate its recovery.”
The Asian market
Within the 2 decades, CMO has made impressive predictions on the demanded new 41,000 commercial jets. Boeing has always banked on its growth in Asian markets, which comprises 40% of the long-term global demand for new aircraft.
Europe and North America, on the other hand, makes up 20% of the total demanded new aircraft, whilst other world regions make up only 15%.
Within Asia alone, South Asia leads the way in the Asian segment and will grow at approximately 6.2% annually. This impressive growth will be led by India, the soon-to-be world’s most populous country. The region’s fleet will quadruple from 700 aircraft in 2019 to more than 2,600 airplanes through 2041.
South East Asia on the other hand, will be trailing behind South Asia and will see its fleet growth rate tripling from what it has today, to 4,500 new jets demanded by 2041.
Narrowbody vs. Widebody
The most demanded aircraft will largely be single-aisle jets, which will make up for 75% of new deliveries, this figure remains unchanged from last year’s market outlook from Boeing, with approximately 31,000 aircraft being delivered. From today onwards, 41,000 new widebody aircraft will only make up 18% of deliveries or just over 7,200 aircraft.
It is by no surprise that the narrowbody aircraft surpasses its wider body counterpart. Narrowbody jets give airlines flexibility and higher efficiency than larger aircraft.
Boeing has also predicted that freighter aircraft will also have an increasingly important role in the global aviation market. Freighter aircraft will indeed assist the global supply chains and the transport of vital goods.
According to the manufacturer, operators of both freighters aircraft and airlines will need at least 2,800 additional freighters, and within that number 940 of them will be widebody models. The rest will be narrowbody aircraft and widebody converted freighters within the predicted time frame.
You can follow live updates on aircraft purchasing and order placements made at the Farnborough Airshow on the AviationSource live blog: Live Farnborough Airshow 2022