LONDON – Aircraft manufacturing giant Airbus has advised that it will be unable to meet its delivery target for commercial aircraft this year.
Based on its November deliveries of 68 commercial aircraft and the complex operating environment, Airbus SE considers its target to achieve “around 700” commercial aircraft deliveries in 2022 to now be out of reach.
The final figure is not expected to fall materially short of the “around 700” delivery target.
Airbus remains committed to delivering its financial guidance as provided at the Nine-Month 2022 results, meaning guidance for EBIT Adjusted and Free Cash Flow before M&A and Customer Financing remains unchanged.
Taking into account the fact that this complex environment will persist longer than previously expected, Airbus will be adjusting the speed of the A320 Family ramp-up to rate 65 for 2023 and 2024.
Airbus maintains the objective of reaching rate 75 by the middle of the decade.
The full year 2022 Airbus commercial aircraft orders and deliveries will be disclosed – after audit – on 10 January 2023. Full Year results will be disclosed on 16 February 2023.
November 2022 performance
In November 2022 Airbus also registered 29 new orders and 14 cancellations bringing the backlog to 7,344 aircraft. The month breakdown was as follows:
- November 2022 deliveries: 68 deliveries to 40 customers
- November 2022 orders: 29 orders
- 2022 deliveries to date: 565 deliveries to 72 customers in the year.
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2022 – 2041
Airbus’ latest edition of its Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the 2022-2041 period offers a forward-looking view of air traffic and fleet evolutions.
The GMF 2022-2041 connects the drivers for air transport demand (GDP, demographics…) with existing measures related to decarbonisation of the sector such as Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) usage and CO2-prices.
The report highlights future traffic growth and aircraft demand (for aircraft over 100 seats category) as well as air freight development and demand for cargo aircraft.
Aviation connections support commerce and business, governments and education while air cargo provides essential services, carrying 35% of world trade by value, including assistance for global health systems. People also want and need to (re)connect with families and friends.
The Airbus GMF2022-2041 is based on a set of energy costs and macro-economic assumptions mostly reflecting the International Energy Agency STEPS (Stated Policies Scenario), incl. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) mandates and announced CO2 prices.
Airbus forecasts that demand for passenger traffic will grow annually by 3.6% (2019-2041) CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate) over the next 20 years.
Airbus forecasts a demand for 39.490 new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, of which 31.620 typically Single Aisle and 7.870 typically Widebody.
The demand for Freighters is expected to reach 2,440 aircraft over the next 20 years, with nearly 900 of these new-built.
Only 20% of the current in-service fleet is the latest generation fuel efficient aircraft. Replacement of older generation aircraft is one of the most straightforward way to decarbonise the sector.
A copy of the Airbus Global Market Forecast can be downloaded here.