The global air cargo industry has witnessed a continued surge in demand during the first half of 2024.
According to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) it has been an exceptional period for air cargo.
This remarkable rebound growth has not only surpassed the previous year’s figures but has also outperformed the record-breaking levels seen in 2021.
H1 2024: Record-Breaking Performance
June 2024 marked the seventh consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth in air cargo demand.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), increased by an impressive 14.1% compared to June 2023. This growth was even more pronounced for international operations, which saw a 15.6% increase.
Overall, the first half of 2024 has been exceptional for the air cargo industry:
- Total demand rose by 13.4% compared to the same period in 2023
- Volumes exceeded those of 2022 by 4.3%
- Surprisingly, demand even surpassed the record-breaking levels of 2021 by a marginal 0.02%
This stellar performance indicates a robust recovery and growth in the air cargo sector, despite ongoing global challenges.
Capacity Growth and Market Dynamics
Alongside the surge in demand, capacity has also expanded, albeit at a slower pace. Available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs) increased by 8.8% compared to June 2023.
Overall, international operations saw a 10.8% rise. This disparity between demand and capacity growth suggests a tightening market, potentially leading to higher yields for carriers.
Driving Factors Behind the Growth
Several key factors have contributed to this exceptional performance:
- Maritime Shipping Constraints: Ongoing issues in sea freight have likely diverted some cargo to air transport.
- Booming E-commerce: The continued expansion of online retail has significantly boosted air cargo volumes.
- Resilience to Global Challenges: The air cargo sector has shown remarkable resistance to political and economic uncertainties.
Interestingly, even the U.S. customs crackdown on e-commerce deliveries from China has not significantly impacted the overall growth trend.
Regional Performance Highlights
The air cargo market has seen strong growth across all regions, with some notable standouts:
- Asia-Pacific: Led the pack with a 17.0% year-on-year demand growth, buoyed by robust performance on various trade lanes.
- Europe: Saw a 16.1% increase, with intra-European cargo showing particularly strong growth.
- Middle East: Experienced 13.8% growth, with the Middle East-Europe route performing exceptionally well.
- Latin America: Posted the second-highest increase in international demand growth at 17.2%.
- Africa: Witnessed 11.8% growth, with the Africa-Asia market showing remarkable strength.
Economic Indicators and Future Outlook
While the air cargo sector has shown strong performance, some economic indicators present a mixed picture:
- The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output indicated expansion at 52.3.
- Global cross-border trade saw a slight expansion of 0.1% month-on-month in May.
- Inflation rates varied across regions, with China’s near-zero inflation rate reflecting weak domestic demand.
Despite these mixed signals, IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, remains optimistic about the sector’s prospects for the second half of 2024.
Conclusion
The air cargo industry’s performance in the first half of 2024 has been quite remarkable. Demand has outpaced capacity growth and showed resilience in the face of global challenges.
However, stakeholders should remain vigilant of economic indicators and geopolitical factors that could impact future growth.
As the industry moves into the second half of the year, it will be crucial to monitor how these trends evolve and how the sector adapts to changing market dynamics.
The exceptional growth seen so far sets a high bar, but also provides a strong foundation for future development in the global air cargo market.
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