December 13, 2024
Embraer Reduces 2024 Commercial Delivery Forecast Amid Supply Chain Issues

Embraer Reduces 2024 Commercial Delivery Forecast Amid Supply Chain Issues

Embraer has reported its Q3 performance, adjusting 2024 commercial deliveries down slightly due to supply chain issues. Order backlog is currently at a nine-year high.
An Embraer E190 overflies the company factory.
Photo Credit: Embraer

Embraer, the Brazilian aerospace giant, has reported its third-quarter results for 2024. The quarter has been marked by an overall sound performance and a historic order backlog at a nine-year high.

On the commercial aircraft side, Embraer has revised its expected 2024 deliveries down slightly, to 70-73 aircraft. CEO Francisco Gomes Neto cites supply chain problems and related issues as the primary cause.

Overall, the company’s performance reflects strong momentum across its business segments, particularly in Executive Aviation and Defense & Security.

Record-Breaking Order Backlog & Strong Market Position


The company achieved a remarkable milestone with its order backlog reaching US$22.7 billion in Q3 2024 – the highest level in nine years.

This represents a substantial increase of over 25% year-over-year and nearly 10% quarter-over-quarter. It ably demonstrates a robust level of market demand for Embraer’s aircraft portfolio.

Delivery Performance

Embraer’s delivery performance in the third quarter of 2024 saw strong growth across all segments. The company delivered a total of 59 aircraft, with the majority coming from its executive jet division. This contributed 41 units split between 22 light and 19 medium jets.

The commercial aviation segment added 16 aircraft to the total, while the Defense & Security division delivered two C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft.

These numbers represent a significant improvement, with overall deliveries increasing by 26% compared to the previous quarter’s 47 units. It showed an impressive 37% growth compared to the same period last year.

An Embraer E195 in flight.
Photo Credit: Embraer

Commercial Division: Supply Chain Issues

There is a slight adjustment in Commercial Aviation delivery expectations for 2024. This is adjusted down to 70-73 aircraft from the previous 72-80 range.

CEO Gomes Neto explained that, in general, the manufacturer has seen improvements in the supply chain in Q3.

However, problems exist with specific groups of components, notably engines and structural parts. The E2 family variants have been particularly affected. 

Financial Performance Highlights


The third quarter of 2024 proved to be exceptionally strong for Embraer’s financial performance. The company generated revenues of US$1,692 million, marking a substantial 32% increase from the previous year.

Particularly noteworthy was the performance of both the Executive Aviation and Defense & Security segments, each achieving remarkable 65% year-over-year revenue growth.

The company’s profitability metrics were equally impressive, with adjusted EBIT reaching US$297.5 million and achieving a 17.6% margin.

Free cash flow performance was strong as well, with adjusted free cash flow (excluding Eve) reaching US$241.1 million, primarily driven by the increased number of aircraft deliveries.

View of Embraer E190F freighter parked on tarmac.
Photo Credit: Embraer

Credit Rating Upgrade


Embraer’s financial stability has received significant recognition from major rating agencies. In a notable development, Fitch Ratings upgraded the company’s credit rating to investment grade “BBB-” with a stable outlook in late September.

This upgrade aligns with S&P’s investment grade rating. Moody’s maintains its Ba1 rating, just one notch below investment grade, with a recently revised positive outlook.

These ratings reflect growing confidence in Embraer’s financial health and strategic positioning.

Brazilian aerospace giant Embraer has solidified its financial position with the signing of a new $1 billion syndicated credit agreement. This five-year deal represents an expansion of a previous $650 million credit facility established in October 2022.

Updated 2024 Guidance


Management has revised its full-year guidance for 2024, reflecting a balanced approach to opportunities and risks.

There is a slight adjustment in Commercial Aviation delivery expectations to 70-73 aircraft from the previous 72-80 range.

Notably, management has increased its profitability expectations, raising the adjusted EBIT margin guidance to 9.0-10.0% from the previous 6.5-7.5% range.

Additionally, the adjusted Free Cash Flow target has been elevated to US$300 million or higher, up from the previous US$220 million threshold.

Conclusion

Despite the slight reduction in commercial aircraft deliveries, Embraer’s full Q3 2024 results demonstrate the company’s strong market position and operational efficiency.

With a record-breaking backlog, improved credit ratings, and robust delivery numbers, the aerospace manufacturer appears well-positioned for sustained growth in the coming quarters.

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